\(H_0^J\): does genetic drift track phenotypic drift?#

Definition

A compound, model-comparison hypothesis over the joint outcome of \(H_0^A\) (profile invariance) and \(H_0^I\) (genotype-to-class invariance), conditional on rejecting \(H_0^A\). It reads two patterns:

  • Dissociation: the profiles drift (\(H_0^A\) rejected) while the genotype-to-class mapping is invariant (\(H_0^I\) retained). Reading: the phenotypic drift is not tracked by the genetic architecture, implicating non-genetic drivers (environmental exposure, ascertainment, or measurement change) in how autism presents across strata.

  • Co-drift: the profiles and the genotype-to-class mapping drift together. Reading: the genetic programs move with the phenotypic classes, implicating a shift in the underlying biology of the diagnosed classes.

Estimand: the joint pattern of phenotypic-parameter drift and genotype-class-mapping drift along each axis.

Status

Waiting on data access. This test is gated on \(H_0^I\), which is itself gated on SFARI genotype access, so it cannot run until the genetic data is held. Nothing is run.

Method#

The planned test is a cross-tabulation of the \(H_0^A\) and \(H_0^I\) outcomes per axis: where the profile drifted against where the genotype-to-class map drifted. Because the genotype-to-class alignment is expected to be weak and diffuse, \(H_0^I\) is powered as a test of a change in the mapping rather than of its baseline strength, so a retained \(H_0^I\) is read as no detected co-drift rather than as proof of none.

This article will be completed once genotype access is granted and both \(H_0^A\) and \(H_0^I\) are read on the same strata.

See also#